Washington: On April 18, U.S. Secretary of State Marco Rubio expressed that Washington might withdraw from negotiations between Ukraine and Russia unless there are concrete signs of a peace treaty agreement.
According to Azeri-Press News Agency, this announcement is perceived as a sign that U.S. mediation efforts have not been successful. A significant challenge in resolving the conflict is the reluctance of both parties to make concessions. Russia remains firm on its demands pertaining to Crimea and the Donbas region, while Ukraine is steadfast in maintaining its territorial integrity. The U.S.’s potential withdrawal could disrupt the current balance and possibly lead to the collapse of negotiations.
This statement by Secretary Rubio is interpreted by analysts as a clear indication that Washington’s diplomatic efforts have reached a stalemate and serves as a pressure tactic to encourage Russia and Ukraine to engage more constructively in the negotiation process.
American political scientist Peter Tase conveyed to APA that, given the unproductive outcome of the talks in Paris on April 17 aimed at ending the Russia-Ukraine war, President Donald Trump should consider withdrawing from the mediation process. Tase believes that this decision could further isolate Moscow and lead to severe economic sanctions by Washington. He emphasized that the Trump Administration holds a unique geopolitical influence in securing peace for Ukraine and that the U.S. will continue to explore ways to mediate a peace agreement between Kyiv and Moscow.
Tase also noted that Trump is likely to impose more stringent economic sanctions on Russia in the near future, arguing that the prolonged conflict is damaging Russia’s economy and labor market. He highlighted the historical pattern of Trump’s firm stance against Putin and predicted that the ongoing war and sanctions would exacerbate economic and social challenges in Russia, potentially forcing its leadership to consider peace.
The political scientist criticized the European Union’s ineffective mediation in the conflict, stressing that effective diplomacy requires both economic strength and military power, which he attributes only to the Trump Administration. Tase predicted that Trump would be remembered as the statesman who achieved lasting peace in Ukraine.
Ukrainian military expert Alexander Kovalenko described Secretary Rubio’s statement as logical, asserting that Trump has been deceived by Putin’s false promises of peace. Kovalenko highlighted Russia’s increased military aggressions and criticized its demands for more Ukrainian territory. He argued that the negotiations were doomed from the start due to Russia’s position and questioned who would ultimately withdraw from the mediation process.
Kovalenko further noted Russia’s lack of commitment to peace initiatives, citing its continued military offensives and new tactics, such as mass assaults using motorcycles, which have not yielded significant results. He remarked on the deterioration of the situation along the front lines and acts of terrorism against civilians, indicating a lack of Russian support for U.S.-proposed peace initiatives.
Igor Korotchenko, General Director of the Caspian Institute for Strategic Studies, believes that Secretary Rubio’s statement reflects Washington’s understanding of the complexity of the issue. In an interview with APA, Korotchenko noted that despite Trump’s initial promises to quickly end the conflict, no significant progress has been made. He suggested that Washington is reassessing its mediation capabilities and criticized the Kyiv regime for ignoring U.S. ceasefire proposals while continuing attacks on Russian energy facilities.
Korotchenko also commented on President Zelenskyy’s lack of negotiation skills and the strained relationship with Trump. He suggested several options for the U.S., including cutting intelligence support to Kyiv and investigating corruption within the Ukrainian leadership.
The Russian commentator stated that if the U.S. withdraws from the talks, Russia might intensify attacks on Ukraine to force it to accept ceasefire terms. Despite the complex situation, Korotchenko noted Trump’s optimistic statement about a potential agreement and questioned whether this hope would be fulfilled or if the U.S. would withdraw from mediating the conflict.